The health care platforms released by Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump provide information to the public describing where the U.S. presidential candidates stand on a particular issue with the purpose of garnering their support and vote. However, the chances that either Clinton or Trump’s health care platform becomes law will depend on a number of variables, one of which includes the results of the upcoming Senate and House elections.
On Nov. 8, not only will a new president be elected, but the balance of power in the Senate and House will also be decided. In the Senate, there are 34 seats that will be contested, 24 of which are currently held by Republicans. Democrats will need to gain 4 or 5 seats to take control. All 435 House seats are up for election, and the Democrats will need a net gain of 30 seats to take control of the House. If Clinton wins and the Democrats take over as the majority party in Congress, the path to passing her health care proposals could become easier. The same can be said for Trump and the Republicans. If we have a divided government, in which one party controls the presidency while the other party controls Congress, passing legislation can become more difficult.
However, even if Clinton or Trump wins the presidency and their party takes control of the Senate and House, it does not mean that their platform will be enacted into law. There are a number of past examples that show that even when one party controls the White House and Congress, platforms have still not passed. Although reasons for this are numerous, one cause is internal strife within the majority party. Explanations for why internal party schisms occur are abundant. Legislators in the same party may have political or personal philosophical differences, or legislative priorities may differ. Even when party members can agree on the general concept of a platform, it still may fail because they cannot agree on the details.
Legislation that may affect senior citizens can be a good illustration of how an issue can divide a party. Voters who are 65 years of age and older are an important voting bloc because they vote in higher numbers, and more faithfully, than younger voters. About 61 percent of citizens ages 65 and older vote, and 54 percent of those between the ages of 55 and 64 also cast a ballot. Therefore, issues that may negatively affect seniors could divide a party into those that just want to move the legislation forward and those that do not want to upset and alienate their most powerful constituency.
Even when a bill is signed into law, it can still be voided by the courts through Judicial Review, in which the courts declare an act unconstitutional, and thus unenforceable. The most recent, and arguably one of the most famous, cases of judicial review was the “Obamacare” decision. By a vote of 5-4, the court upheld most of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but it did strike down an element of the law that threatened to withhold Medicaid funding from states that did not cooperate with the law, on the grounds that this was an unconstitutional violation of state sovereignty.
Regardless of the outcome of the November elections, implementing their health care platform into law will be a long, difficult task for the elected president.
